The balance sheet: groundwater is the working reserve San Joaquin Valley example
California agriculture runs on two supplies that trade places. In wet years, surface water from rivers, reservoirs, and the state and federal projects carries most of the load and aquifers rest or refill. In dry years the aquifer becomes the supply of last resort.
Statewide, groundwater provided about 30 percent of agricultural water in wet 2017 and 2019, 63 percent in the 2015 drought, and 57 percent in 2022. In the Tulare Lake region the swing runs from 22 percent in wet 2017 to 90 percent in 2015, when surface deliveries collapsed from over 9 million to about 1.1 million acre-feet.
Subbasin reporting under SGMA shows the same mechanism at field scale. Across the subbasins that file annual reports, groundwater's share of agricultural water use ran near 67 percent through the critical years of 2021 and 2022 and fell to 36 percent in wet 2023. The swing is sharper in the southern San Joaquin Valley: in the Kings subbasin the share moved from 90 percent in critical 2021 to 38 percent in wet 2023, and in Kern County from 73 percent to 27 percent. When surface water arrives, pumps rest and aquifers recover. Every acre-foot of reliable surface supply is an acre-foot the aquifer keeps, and in wet years it becomes water the aquifer can take in.
Decades of dry-year reliance have accumulated into overdraft. For the San Joaquin Valley, the Unified Water Plan projects a gap of about 2.4 million acre-feet a year by 2040, the year SGMA requires critically overdrafted basins to reach balance. Recharge is how wet years pay that balance down.
Storage is perishable: subsidence
When water tables fall far enough, fine-grained layers in the aquifer system compress. Some of that compression is elastic and recovers when levels rise. Past a threshold it is inelastic: the clays collapse, the land surface sinks, and the storage space is gone for good. DWR's InSAR monitoring shows nearly 8 feet of cumulative sinking since June 2015 in the most affected parts of the San Joaquin Valley. The damage runs through infrastructure as well as storage: subsidence has cut the Friant-Kern Canal's capacity through its middle reach by more than half, and canal repair and recharge are two halves of the same fix, since raising groundwater levels is what slows the sinking.
A study published in PNAS in July 2026 extended this picture to the Sacramento Valley, which had largely been considered the state's stable aquifer. Combining satellite radar, GPS, well records, and satellite gravity data for 2016 to 2022, researchers at UCLA and Caltech found that large areas shifted abruptly to mostly irreversible compaction in 2021, during the 2020 to 2022 drought. Ground in the most affected areas sank as much as 20 inches per year, against a reversible response of well under an inch, and permanent storage loss rose roughly fivefold, to about 160,000 acre-feet per year in 2021 and 2022.
The finding that matters most for management: recovering water levels do not mean a recovered aquifer. In many areas the ground did not rebound after seasonal recharge, confirming that part of the storage space itself was lost. Recharge deferred can mean capacity that no longer exists when the next wet year arrives. That is the argument, written in the land surface, for moving water underground in the years when it is available.
Where recharge works: suitability and aquifer potential
Two complementary layers answer the siting question. SAGBI rates soils on five factors that govern whether applied water reaches the aquifer without harming the crop: deep percolation, root-zone residence time, topography, chemical limitations, and surface condition. DWR's Aquifer Recharge Potential maps add what soils cannot show: subsurface pathways mapped by airborne electromagnetic surveys, distinguishing shallow recharge potential from deep preferential pathways that move water into the aquifer system, under both natural and built conditions. ARP coverage currently spans the Sacramento Valley and the Madera and North Kings area, with additional regions expected as DWR's Basin Characterization Program publishes them.
When water is available
Recharge water is episodic. The flows that qualify for streamlined diversion concentrate in high-flow periods within a few wet winters, which makes daily eligibility and the historical frequency of eligible days the operative planning numbers. DWR's Central Valley Flood-MAR Dashboard tracks flood-release conditions and forecasts across both valleys; the tools below compute gauge-level eligibility under the State Water Board's streamlined method.
Daily gauge-level check of the State Water Board's streamlined water availability method for recharge diversions: current flow against the 90th percentile threshold, allowable diversion volume, and eligible-day history by winter.
Point-of-diversion level water availability for recharge on the Merced, with prorated thresholds and downstream senior demand comparison.
Statewide soil suitability (SAGBI), DWR aquifer recharge potential, InSAR land subsidence, and Bulletin 118 basin boundaries.
How to permit it
Diverting surface water to underground storage requires a water right, and the pathway chosen determines the availability showing, the season, the fee, and whether the recharged water is yours. The State Water Board's streamlined temporary permits accept the 90/20 method in place of a full water availability analysis: daily flow at the point of diversion exceeds the day's 90th percentile, computed from at least 30 years of record, and the allowable diversion is the lesser of the flow above that threshold or 20 percent of the daily flow.
| Pathway | Availability showing | Season | Fees | Right to recharged water |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Temporary permit, 180 days (Water Code 1425) | 90/20 method, or documented imminent flood threat | December 1 to March 31 | 35 percent of tiered standard fee filed 120+ days ahead; 50 percent filed later | Yes, under permit terms |
| Five-year permit (Water Code 1433) | 90/20 method, or documented imminent flood threat | December 1 to March 31 | Same early and late filing treatment | Yes, under permit terms |
| Flood flow diversion (Water Code 1242.1 to 1242.3) | Local agency public notice of imminent flooding under local plan thresholds | While the flood condition is noticed | No permit, no fee | No |
| Standard appropriative permit | Full water availability analysis | As permitted | Full tiered application fees | Yes |
Timing affects cost. Filing at least 120 days ahead cuts the temporary permit fee from 50 to 35 percent of the standard tiered fee, and applicants cannot know in advance whether a winter will deliver eligible flows. The eligibility tool's winter history, showing how many qualifying days each past winter offered at a gauge, is the number that supports the file-early decision.
What it costs and what it returns
Recharge competes against other ways of adding supply, and on published project costs it competes well. The comparison that matters is not recharge against zero. It is recharge against the cost of the water it replaces and against the cost of not having the water at all.
What sets the cost. Soils in the Kings study sustained infiltration of about 2.5 inches per day after an initial rate near 8 inches per day, through flooding events lasting up to 20 days. At that sustained rate, roughly 10 acres of ground absorbs 1 cubic foot per second of delivered flow. The binding constraint in that project was not the ground. It was the pipe: diversion and pumping capacity limited application to about 0.26 inches per day, an order of magnitude below what the soil could take. Conveyance and turnout capacity, not infiltration, usually decide how much water a winter can put underground.
What the crop can take. Roughly half of San Joaquin Valley cropland is considered suitable for on-farm recharge. Field trials give the tolerance picture directly. Almond orchards on moderately drained to well-drained soils received about 24 inches of applied water in late December and January in each of two years with no adverse effect on tree water status, canopy development, or yield, and more than 80 percent of the applied water percolated past the root zone. Alfalfa tolerates heavy winter flooding with minimal yield loss, and researchers estimated that flooding all suitable alfalfa acreage with 6 feet of winter water could bank on the order of 1.6 million acre-feet a year. Wine grapes showed no crop damage across two seasons of spring flooding for direct recharge, and pistachios showed no significant yield penalty. On annual crops such as tomatoes, recharge is run during the fallow window.
Who pays and who is paid. Districts have built incentive structures rather than mandates. Westlands and Arvin-Edison have paid landowners $30 to $100 per acre-foot to take surplus district water and recharge it on their land. Landowners who conduct recharge commonly receive 50 to 90 percent of the diverted volume back as a credit against future pumping, with the remainder left behind for the basin. Pajaro Valley rebates half its groundwater pumping fee, currently $323 to $452 per acre-foot, for water recharged. Growers do carry real costs on their side of the ledger, including meters, dual-use irrigation, checks and turnouts, and the labor to run and monitor a flooded field through the winter.
What it is worth. Valley growers have generally not been willing to pay more than $300 to $500 per acre-foot for new long-term supply, which sets the practical ceiling any recharge project has to price under. The return side is larger than the water bill. Analysis of the Valley's path to groundwater balance found that ending overdraft with limited flexibility means fallowing about 750,000 acres, with annual regional economic output down about $2.1 billion and roughly 21,000 jobs lost. Adding supply and allowing water to move to its highest use brings that to about 535,000 acres, $1.3 billion, and 13,000 jobs, a reduction of roughly 40 percent in the employment effect. Recharge is one of the supply-side levers in that calculation, and it is among the cheapest of them.
More than $520 million has been disbursed to local agencies since 2015 for sustainable groundwater planning and implementation, which is why cost-share, not full local capital, is the usual financing shape for a first project.
Who manages it and what comes next
The Sustainable Groundwater Management Act of 2014 assigned groundwater to local control with a state backstop. Bulletin 118 defines the basins and subbasins; Groundwater Sustainability Agencies, formed by counties, cities, and water districts, adopt and implement Groundwater Sustainability Plans; and critically overdrafted basins must reach sustainability by 2040, avoiding six undesirable results that include chronic level declines, storage reduction, and land subsidence. SGMA governs demand and accounting. It does not supply water, which is why recharge capacity decides how much of the balancing arrives through wet-year supply rather than through reduced pumping.
The state's direction of travel is toward making recharge easier and faster. A Vision for the San Joaquin Valley, released by DWR in May 2026 and open for public comment through July 21, 2026, prioritizes near-term high-flow capture pilots, raising groundwater levels to slow subsidence, regulatory reforms that streamline recharge permitting, and a public dashboard for identifying recharge opportunities, with long-term investment in storage, conveyance repair, and subsidence remediation. It builds on the State Water Project Adaptation Strategy, the San Joaquin Valley Conveyance Study, and the San Joaquin Basin Watershed Studies, and feeds the California Water Plan 2028 under SB 72. The final version has not yet been published.
Legislation is moving in the same direction. AB 2026 would write the 90/20 method into the Water Code, add flood-recharge and location-specific diversion criteria as expedited routes through a water availability analysis, and extend the simplified minor-application path to private parties operating under an agreement with a Groundwater Sustainability Agency. It passed the Assembly 68 to 0 on May 27, 2026, cleared its Senate policy committees without a no vote, and was placed on the Senate Appropriations suspense file on August 3, 2026. Until it passes, the 90/20 method remains State Water Board practice rather than statute, and the fee timing in the table above stands as written.
The through-line across all of it: reliable surface supply and recharge capacity are what let basins reach balance with their agricultural economies intact.
Key terms
- Acre-foot
- The volume covering one acre a foot deep: about 326,000 gallons. A common planning figure for water supply and use.
- Appropriative water right
- A right to divert water for beneficial use, generally ranked by seniority of first use. New diversions to storage, including recharge, require one unless a permit exemption applies.
- Conjunctive use
- Operating surface water and groundwater as one system: leaning on surface supplies and storing water underground in wet years, drawing on the aquifer in dry ones.
- Critically overdrafted basin
- A basin where continued present management would produce significant adverse impacts. DWR designates these basins, and their sustainability deadline under SGMA is 2040.
- Elastic and inelastic compaction
- Aquifer sediments compress as water levels fall. Elastic compaction recovers when levels rise. Inelastic compaction is permanent: clay layers collapse, the land sinks, and the storage space is lost.
- Flood-MAR
- Managed aquifer recharge using flood flows: capturing high river flows and spreading them on fields, basins, or floodplains to percolate underground.
- Groundwater Sustainability Agency (GSA)
- The local agency, formed by counties, cities, or water districts, responsible for managing a basin or subbasin under SGMA.
- Groundwater Sustainability Plan (GSP)
- The GSA's adopted plan for reaching and holding sustainability, with measurable objectives, monitoring, and annual reporting on supplies, demands, and levels.
- In-lieu recharge
- Recharge by substitution: delivering surface water so wells can rest, leaving groundwater in storage rather than injecting or spreading water directly.
- Infiltration rate
- How fast water moves from the surface into the soil, in inches per day. It starts high on dry ground and settles to a sustained rate as the profile wets up.
- Managed aquifer recharge (MAR)
- Deliberately moving water underground: dedicated recharge basins, winter flooding of farmland, injection wells, or in-lieu deliveries.
- 90/20 method
- The State Water Board's streamlined water availability showing for winter recharge diversions: daily flow exceeds the day's 90th percentile from at least 30 years of record, and the allowable diversion is the lesser of the flow above that threshold or 20 percent of the daily flow.
- Overdraft
- Pumping in excess of recharge, sustained over time. Measured as the running deficit in a basin's water budget.
- SAGBI
- The Soil Agricultural Groundwater Banking Index, a UC Davis rating of how suitable a soil is for recharging water through the crop root zone without harming the crop.
- SGMA
- The Sustainable Groundwater Management Act of 2014, which requires medium- and high-priority basins to reach sustainability within about two decades under local management with state oversight.
- Subbasin
- A management subdivision of a groundwater basin, defined in DWR's Bulletin 118. SGMA plans and reporting operate at this scale.
- Subsidence
- Sinking of the land surface as the aquifer system compacts. Beyond storage loss, it damages canals, wells, levees, and drainage; parts of the San Joaquin Valley have sunk nearly 8 feet since 2015.
- Sustainable yield
- The amount of groundwater that can be withdrawn annually over the long term without causing undesirable results.
- Undesirable results
- The six conditions SGMA plans must avoid: chronic lowering of levels, storage reduction, seawater intrusion, degraded quality, land subsidence, and depletion of interconnected surface water.
- Water year
- October 1 through September 30, labeled by the ending year and typed from wet to critical based on runoff. Water year type drives both surface allocations and recharge opportunity.